Iran is avoiding direct strikes on Israel partly because it fears renewed conflict could further weaken or even lead to the collapse of Hezbollah, according to retired Israeli military intelligence officer Or Horowitz.
Speaking in comments reported by The Jerusalem Post, Horowitz, a senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI) and former head of the Israeli military intelligence Hezbollah desk, said Hezbollah’s military capabilities have declined significantly, making Tehran reluctant to escalate tensions.
“One of the reasons Iran is not firing at Israel is its desire not to restart the confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah,” Horowitz said, adding that the group is “in a difficult military state everywhere there is friction with IDF troops.”
Horowitz’s remarks came as the U.S. State Department announced pilot security activities in the southern Lebanese villages of Froun, Srifa and Zawtar al-Gharbiya under a framework involving the United States, Israel and Lebanon.
He said the Lebanese Army is becoming more active against Hezbollah, crediting increased U.S. support with improving its capabilities. While describing the developments as a historic shift, Horowitz warned that a full-scale confrontation between the Lebanese Army and Hezbollah could trigger civil war. He added that sustained international backing would be essential for lasting security reforms in Lebanon.
