Professor Greg Barton, Chair in Global Islamic Politics at Deakin University, says there is little evidence to suggest Iran’s ruling establishment is on the verge of collapse despite mounting international pressure and ongoing conflict.
Speaking to Sky News Australia on Thursday, July 23, 2026, Barton said claims of imminent regime change are driven more by political rhetoric than by realistic intelligence assessments.
He described Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-backed system as a deeply entrenched authoritarian government that maintains tight control over the country’s economy and security apparatus while repressing its citizens.
“The regime is a really brutal police state that controls the Iranian economy, and it is even this week hanging young people for doing no crimes at all. That regime will eventually fall, but I don’t know that there are any signs it’s going to fall within the next five years,” Barton said.
He argued that Iran lacks a strong, organised opposition capable of challenging those in power, with fear of state repression discouraging public resistance. Barton added that external military pressure could strengthen nationalist sentiment, making immediate political change less likely. He concluded that while the current system may eventually end, there is no clear indication it faces a serious threat within the next five years.
